The Philippines’ Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC), the independent body that sets and reviews electricity rates, approved two separate rulings for Manila Electric Company (Meralco), the country’s largest power distributor, on October 9, 2026: a four-year distribution-rate increase and a ₱2.64-billion customer refund. Only one of them has reached a bill. The rate increase from the regulatory reset is locked in; the refund is still provisional, pending hearings running October 16 to 23, 2026 — this week — while a separate, unrelated generation-charge jump has already pushed October bills higher regardless of either decision.

What the ERC Actually Decided on October 9

Under Case No. 2026-016 RC, the ERC reset Meralco’s allowed revenue for the four-year regulatory period running July 2026 to June 2030, according to the Tribune and GMA News. Meralco had asked for roughly ₱532 billion in revenue over the period; the ERC approved about ₱342 billion — 36 percent less. The approved average distribution rate for the first regulatory year is ₱1.48 per kilowatt-hour, up from the current ₱1.35, but far below the ₱2.34 Meralco had requested.

On the same date, the ERC also granted Meralco provisional authority to refund approximately ₱2.64 billion to customers, covering a true-up of distribution charges collected between January and June 2026. Reports cited by the Tribune and GMA News put Meralco’s over-collection during that window at roughly ₱5.36 billion before earlier adjustments were netted out, leaving ₱2.64 billion still owed back. For a residential customer using 200 kilowatt-hours a month, that works out to about ₱0.1733 per kilowatt-hour, or roughly ₱34.66 — a figure that gives a sense of scale but doesn’t translate directly to a commercial or industrial meter on a different rate class.

What Already Hit the October Bill, Rate Reset or Not

Neither the new distribution rate nor the refund order has yet shown up on a Meralco bill. What did show up in October was something else entirely: a ₱0.3191-per-kilowatt-hour increase in the overall rate, driven by a ₱0.4973 jump in the generation charge, Meralco spokesperson Joe Zaldarriaga said at a media briefing reported by Context.ph. The generation charge is the pass-through cost of the electricity itself, set largely by fuel prices and wholesale market conditions rather than by Meralco’s own distribution margin.

Two forces drove that jump: higher fuel costs from suppliers First Gas and Prime CoreGen, tied to elevated global liquefied natural gas prices linked to Middle East supply tensions, and a rise of ₱3.5167 per kilowatt-hour in Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) prices amid tighter supply in the Luzon grid. A weaker peso compounded both, since roughly 89 percent of those generation costs are dollar-denominated. A ₱0.7567 reduction tied to Meralco’s Power Supply Agreements — fixed-price contracts that cover about 74 percent of its supply mix — partly offset the increase, but not enough to prevent the typical household rate from rising from ₱14.7424 to ₱15.0615 per kilowatt-hour, ending two consecutive months of rate cuts. Commercial and industrial accounts face the same generation-charge pass-through, even though no outlet has published a separate per-class breakdown.

Why the ₱2.64 Billion Refund Isn’t a Number Yet

The ERC itself has described the refund order as provisional. Hearings scheduled for October 16 to 23, 2026 could adjust the final amount before any credit reaches a bill, and reporting on the outcome of those hearings had not surfaced as of this writing. Once finalized, the refund is expected to be distributed over six months starting with the November 2026 billing cycle — the same month the October rate increase will have already been paid in full.

That sequencing matters for anyone trying to forecast a building’s electricity cost through year-end: the number that is certain (the generation-charge increase) has already been billed, while the number that is still being argued over (the refund) has not. A facility budget built only on the headline refund figure risks understating near-term cash outflow and overstating relief that is not yet contractually fixed.

What a Building Operator Should Actually Budget For This Quarter

A commercial or industrial account on Meralco’s network is now carrying three separate, asynchronous adjustments at once: a higher distribution rate that applies from the start of the new regulatory year, a generation charge that moves monthly with fuel and wholesale prices and already rose in October, and a refund that will arrive on a schedule set only after this week’s hearings conclude. Treating any one of these as the full picture will misstate the quarter.

The more defensible approach is to model the distribution-rate increase as a baseline cost that holds for the next regulatory year, treat the generation charge as a volatile monthly variable tied to LNG and WESM prices rather than a one-off, and treat the refund as a credit to be recognized only once the ERC issues a final order — not before. For a portfolio spanning several Meralco-served buildings, that refund credit is also the only one of the three adjustments proportional to past over-collection rather than future cost, making it the wrong figure to use for forward-looking tariff planning.

Key takeaways

  • The ERC approved a four-year Meralco distribution-rate reset and a separate ₱2.64-billion refund order on the same day, October 9, 2026, but only the rate reset is final.
  • The refund remains provisional pending ERC hearings running October 16 to 23, 2026, and its final amount and November billing treatment are not yet confirmed.
  • October bills already rose ₱0.3191 per kilowatt-hour on a generation-charge increase unrelated to either ERC ruling, driven by LNG-linked fuel costs, higher wholesale market prices and a weaker peso.
  • Commercial and industrial accounts face the same generation-charge pass-through as residential customers, though no official per-class rate breakdown has been published.
  • Building operators on Meralco’s network should budget the distribution-rate increase as a fixed near-term cost and treat the refund as unconfirmed until the ERC issues a final order.